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I believe that experience and overall market knowledge play a significant role here. The Forex market seems to me like a large system where its own algorithms and Forex patterns operate. This is explained in a clear and accessible way in https://www.sustainablebusinesstoolkit.com/forex-patterns/ by SBToolkit, which discusses various patterns and how they can help predict market movements. Of course, these will still be your assumptions, but they will be backed up. This largely affects a trader's success.
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